Trend forecasting is not guesswork, it is a psychology

Fashion does not happen by accident. Long before a colour hits Instagram feeds or a silhouette appears on a runway, trend forecasters across the world are studying global shifts, cultural moods, climate changes, technology, and consumer behaviour. Their job is to predict what the world will want to wear and sometimes 10 years ahead, sometimes just next season.

Trend forecasting today is a powerful mix of science, sociology, psychology, climate study, and creativity. It is also the engine behind the collections of global luxury houses, fast fashion brands, textile mills, and even lifestyle and interior companies.

“The future of fashion lies in the study of emotion.” — Li Edelkoort

TWO TYPES OF TREND FORECASTING

1. Long-Term (Macro) Trend Forecasting

10-year predictions · Global shifts · Big changes

Macro forecasting looks at major forces shaping the world. These are not about whether skirts are long or short — they are about the future of humanity, and how that future affects design, colour, material, and lifestyle.

Key areas studied:

• Climate change (e.g., ice caps melting, hotter summers, extreme winters)

• Population movement

• Technology adoption (AI, personal robots, advanced computing)

• Economy and industry shifts

• Changing value systems

• Sustainability and circularity

Case Study – The Ice Age Melt & Climate CrisisTrend forecasters have been studying the rapid melting of ice caps and how, within the next 10 years, this will reshape clothing needs. The prediction:- materials that regulate body temperature- waterproof and adaptive surfaces-UV-protective fibres- colours inspired by minerals, glaciers, and bio-labs

This prediction has already influenced global brands. Textile mills in Japan and Italy are working on fabrics that feel cold in summer and warm in winter, responding to unpredictable weather.

Case Study – China’s Tech InvestmentAs China invests heavily in AI, computer automation, and personal robots, forecasters observe:- new industrial aesthetics- chrome, metallic, and machine-inspired colours- ergonomic silhouettes- smart textiles that integrate sensors

When technology becomes a lifestyle, design absorbs its language.

2. Short-Term (Micro) Trend Forecasting

Seasonal predictions · Small shifts · Quick adoption

Micro forecasting looks at what will trend in 6 months or a year. This includes colours, patterns, silhouettes, materials, and accessories.

Sources for micro trends:

• Runway shows

• Street style

• Celebrities and influencers

• Global events

• Music and film

• Social media trends

• Viral colours

·       Case Study – The “Orange Wave”Sometimes a single influencer, runway look, or celebrity appearance sparks a trend.When a major global influencer wore a striking burnt orange shade on social media:

·       Trend casters noted the spike

·       orange appeared in fast fashion stores

·       brands created “sunset palettes”

·       consumers globally warmed up to warm tone

Suddenly, orange was everywhere — from Zara to Milan Fashion Week.

This is how micro trends travel: fast, viral, emotional.

Case Study 1: Zara — The World’s Fastest Trend Translator

Zara is known for converting a forecast into a store-ready garment in as little as 15 days. Their forecasting model combines:

·       real-time store feedback,

·       AI-driven consumer analytics,

·       observation of micro-trends on social media,

·       runway surveillance,

·       climate-responsive drops.

For Example: When oversized bomber jackets spiked among influencers in Korea and Milan, Zara’s design team picked up the data through store managers and social listening tools. Within weeks, Zara released multiple variations—cropped, quilted, satin—turning a niche trend into a global phenomenon.This rapid cycle demonstrates how forecasting is fast behavioural analysis, not speculation.

Case Study 2: WGSN — The Global Authority That Predicts Colour and Mood

WGSN (Worth Global Style Network) is the most influential global forecasting company. Its predictions guide designers, brands, and even film stylists years in advance.

How they forecast:

·       examine political mood

·       track cultural momentum

·       study youth subcultures

·       analyse shifts in wellness, technology, climate

·       consult data scientists & psychologists

For Example: WGSN forecast the colour “Digital Lavender” as the global trend shade for 2023 two years earlier. The prediction was based on:

·       rising anxiety levels → consumers craving calm tones

·       the rise of tech-driven lifestyles

·       pandemic-era preference for soft, healing colours

When the colour finally peaked on runways, in home décor, beauty packaging, and youth fashion, it proved how forecasting is deeply psychological.

TWO MAJOR RESEARCH AREAS IN TREND FORECASTING

1. Global Socio-Technological Research

This includes studying:

• AI adoption

• robotics in homes

• sustainability movements

• geopolitical tensions

• megacities expanding

• changes in work culture

• the rise of wellness economies

For Example: If a country like China expands its personal robot industry, it influences lifestyle, home aesthetics, and clothing design, giving rise to structured silhouettes, chrome finishes, and functional pockets.

2. Consumer Behaviour & Desire Mapping

Trend forecasters study how desire forms in society.

Why do millions suddenly want a particular colour?Why does one material become “cool”?Why does a silhouette explode globally?

Desire often begins in small pockets:

• an influential designer in Paris

• a celebrity in Korea

• a textile innovation in Italy

• a subculture in New York

• a viral TikTok trend

This spark slowly spreads until it becomes a mass demand.

For Example: A textile mill begins experimenting with a new fibre that feels cold in heat and warm in cold.A luxury brand notices it.Designers incorporate it into collections.Celebrities wear it.Influencers talk about it.Consumers desire it.A trend is born.

HOW TEXTILE MILLS SHAPE FUTURE TRENDS

Behind every runway colour card, there is a textile mill working 3-5 years ahead.Mills research:

• futuristic fibres

• climate-smart materials

• dyes that save water

• biodegradable textiles

• weather-adaptive fabrics

• metallic, textured, or tech-inspired weaves

Fashion begins here, long before the designer sketches a garment.

CONCLUSION: THE FUTURE OF FASHION IS ALREADY HERE

Trend forecasting is not guesswork, it is data, psychology, climate science, sociology, and creativity woven together.From predictions about melting ice altering future fabrics to celebrities casually creating global micro trends, forecasting guides everything we will wear.

Gaurav Mandal, a two-time National Award recipient, is a professor at Pearl Academy.